By Rob Grabowski, US Presswire
The health of Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose will be the X factor for the team throughout the NBA playoffs.
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Eastern Conference
No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers
Season series: Bulls 3-1
Projected starting lineups: Bulls — PG Derrick Rose, SG Rip Hamilton, SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, C Joakim Noah; 76ers — PG Jrue Holiday, SG Evan Turner, SF Andre Igoudala, PF Elton Brand, C Spencer Hawes
Key injuries: Bulls — None; 76ers — G-F Sam Young (eye)
Outlook: Even when Rose isn't 100% healthy and the offense isn't running smoothly, Chicago's defense will keep the Bulls close enough to win games. This team has yet to hit full stride, missing Rose and Hamilton for significant stretches. Philadelphia played beyond experts' expectations most of the season, then faltered late. It's a defensive team that doesn't rely too heavily on one or two do-it-all scorers. The problem is, to beat the Bulls, they need one.
Prediction: Bulls in four
No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 New York Knicks
Season series: Heat 3-0
Projected starting lineups: Heat — PG Mario Chalmers, SG Dwyane Wade, SF LeBron James, PF Udonis Haslem, C Ronny Turiaf; Knicks — PG Baron Davis, SG Iman Shumpert, SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Amar'e Stoudemire, C Tyson Chandler
Key injuries: Heat — F-C Chris Bosh (right hamstring strain), Turiaf (left hamstring strain), Wade (dislocated left index finger); Knicks — Chandler (sore left knee), G Jeremy Lin (left knee surgery), F Jared Jeffries (right knee)
Outlook: New York is a better team than the one that got swept, with markedly improved defense under interim coach Mike Woodson. If the Knicks can maintain their offensive explosiveness without losing their edge on defense, they'll push Miami. Keeping James and Wade out of the lane is crucial, which Chandler helped do effectively with the Dallas Mavericks when they won the championship last season.
Prediction: Heat in six
No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic
Season series: Magic 3-1
Projected starting lineups: Pacers — PG George Hill, SG Paul George, SF Danny Granger, PF David West, C Roy Hibbert; Magic — PG Jameer Nelson, SG Jason Richardson, SG J.J. Redick, SF Ryan Anderson, C Glen Davis
Key injuries: Pacers — G Darren Collison (groin), Granger (sore right knee), Hill (sore left shoulder); Magic — C Dwight Howard (back surgery), F Hedo Turkoglu (cheekbone surgery), Davis (right ankle sprain)
Outlook: Orlando's offense is built around Howard, the 2011 defensive player of the year who commands the paint with four shooters to spread the floor. Davis, who is questionable because of his ankle, is the best they can do as a replacement. He'll have a difficult time containing Hibbert, and behind Davis the next best option is C Daniel Orton. The Magic have a bevy of streak shooters, and when they're hitting shots, they can be difficult to beat. Sustaining that for a seven-game series is another matter.
Prediction: Pacers in five
No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
Season series: Celtics 2-1
Projected starting lineups: Celtics — PG Rajon Rondo, SG Avery Bradley, SF Paul Pierce, PF Brandon Bass, C Kevin Garnett; Hawks — PG Jeff Teague, SG Kirk Hinrich, SF Joe Johnson, PF Josh Smith, C Jason Collins
Key injuries: Celtics — Rondo (back spasms), Garnett (hip flexor), G Ray Allen (right ankle bone spurs); Hawks — F Al Horford (left chest muscle tear), C Zaza Pachulia (left foot sprain)
Outlook: Both teams have been hit by injuries, but the Celtics have been here and done it. Their lack of a true starting center won't hurt as much against Atlanta. In the second half of the season, Boston's defense has been superb, which is why it should win out in a low-scoring series.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz
Season series: Spurs 3-1
Projected starting lineups: Spurs — PG Tony Parker, SG Danny Green, SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Tim Duncan, C Tiago Splitter; Jazz — PG Devin Harris, SG Gordon Hayward, SF DeMarre Carroll, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Jefferson
Key injuries: Spurs — G Gary Neal (left shoulder stinger); Jazz — G Earl Watson (right knee surgery), G Raja Bell (left knee), G-F C.J. Miles (left calf strain)
Outlook: Losing a sharpshooter such as Neal will hurt, but the Spurs finished with the best record in the West despite missing All-Star G Manu Ginobili for 32 games. The Jazz likely won't have enough offensive firepower to compete. The Spurs' motion offense is difficult to guard because of its precise movement and passing and for spreading defenses to cover the league's best three-point shooting team (39.5%). The Jazz rank 27th in three-point shooting.
Prediction: Spurs in five
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Season series: Thunder 3-1
Projected starting lineups: Thunder — PG Russell Westbrook, SG Thabo Sefolosha, SF Kevin Durant, PF Serge Ibaka, C Kendrick Perkins; Mavericks — PG Jason Kidd, SG Delonte West, SF Shawn Marion, PF Dirk Nowitzki, C Brendan Haywood
Key injuries: Thunder — G Eric Maynor (right knee); Mavericks — Kidd (back)
Outlook: Last year, the Thunder fell to the Mavericks in the conference finals in five games. In three of their four losses, they had a chance to win in the last two minutes, but bad decision-making and turnovers in the half court hurt the Thunder. This isn't the same Dallas team, but key players such as Nowitizki, Marion and Kidd remain. The Mavericks also play a lot of matchup zone defense, which the Thunder have difficulty solving, particularly Westbrook. But without a dominant defender such as departed C Tyson Chandler in the paint for Dallas, getting inside and finishing for the more athletic Thunder will be much easier.
Prediction: Thunder in six
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets
Season series: Lakers 3-1
Projected starting lineups: Lakers — PG Ramon Sessions, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Devin Ebanks, PF Pau Gasol, C Andrew Bynum. Nuggets — PG Ty Lawson, SG Arron Afflalo, SF Danilo Gallinari, PF Kenneth Faried, C Kosta Koufos
Key injuries: Lakers — F Matt Barnes (right ankle), F Metta World Peace (suspension); Nuggets — F Wilson Chandler (left hip), G Rudy Fernandez (back)
Outlook: The Lakers' major defensive weaknesses are containing fast point guards and an inability to guard the pick-and-roll, particularly with Bynum. The Nuggets have solid guard play with Lawson, but Bryant has shown he's still an elite defender. The Lakers don't have World Peace, so not having to deal with his physicality should open up space for Gallinari, a good ball-handler, passer and mid-range shooter at 6-11. Bynum and Gasol, however, still will have their way inside.
Prediction: Lakers in six
No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Season series: Clippers 2-1
Projected starting lineups: Grizzlies — PG Mike Conley, SG Tony Allen, SF Rudy Gay, PF Mo Speights, C Marc Gasol; Clippers — PG Chris Paul, SG Randy Foye, SF Caron Butler, PF Blake Griffin, C DeAndre Jordan
Key injuries: Grizzlies — G Gilbert Arenas (ligament tear, right hand); Clippers — G Chauncey Billups (Achilles)
Outlook: Both teams held serve at home. The Grizzlies are big and physical inside and can minimize the open-court impact of Griffin and Paul by slowing the pace. Although Jordan is an athletic shot-blocker, his offense around the basket is limited. He's undersized and can disappear against physical interior players such as Gasol and PF Zach Randolph, who likely will keep coming off the bench as he rounds into shape off a right knee injury. The Clippers' backcourt reserves of Mo Williams, Nick Young and Eric Bledsoe have potential for more offensive punch than Memphis', but it's unlikely there will be a lot of high-scoring games. The Grizzlies almost always dictate pace.
Prediction: Grizzlies in six
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